The Modus model is centered on voter sentiment, focusing primarily on predicting the National Popular Vote (NPV). It draws from a combination of historical election data, real-time polling, candidate approval and favorability ratings, and key microeconomic indicators. The model is designed to simulate multiple electoral scenarios, allowing for the testing of different campaign strategies and external factors that could shift voter sentiment.
Modus Battleground is an extension of the core Modus model, zeroing in on battleground states where elections are decided. This version incorporates the historical relative bias in key swing states, adjusting for unique state-level factors like local economic conditions, voter turnout trends, and regional polling data. By doing so, it projects the most likely distribution of Electoral College votes, factoring in how small shifts in battlegrounds could determine the overall election outcome. This nuanced approach helps quantify how states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin might swing in 2024, based on both national sentiment and state-specific variables.
